Why Is It So Difficult to Forecast Snow Six Days Out? by Joe Cioffi

Updated at 5 pm 12/15/2014

NOTE: THIS IS AN ILLUSTRATION AND NOT A FORECAST!

These maps will pretty much explain it all. I understand the critics on both sides of this equation because you want something definitive. At the same time we have horribly conflicting models and it is up to forecasters to come up with something that makes sense.

Suppose you said to me..okay joe make a forecast right now. Okay so off the Euro you have a southern snow all the way down to Virginia with not a flake, or even a rain drop north of Southern New Jersey. If you believe the Parallel GFS you get an I-81 snowstorm yet again from West Virginia northeastward through all of New England. If you believe the GFS you get map number 3 which means enjoy the drive because you won’t see anything. Compromising all the models you get map number 4.

So here we are Monday..6 days away from even the first flakes or raindrops and this is what we have to deal with. 3 models, an exaggerated compromise solution for which I have absolutely no confidence in and a total non event.

And there is a fifth possibilty that given all the dynamics we are dealing with here that we could wind up looking at something far different than all 4 of these choices.

In the end…there is a storm threat for the weekend. That threat continues and won’t be resolved with any degree of confidence anytime soon.

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