SOME SNOW AND ICE LIKELY..COULD CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS FOR MORNING AND EVENING RUSH MONDAY
AREA: ALL OF PENNSYLVANIA, NEW JERSEY, SOUTHEAST NEW YORK, COASTAL CONNECTICUT, LONG ISLAND
Mid afternoon model runs remain consistent. This is not a big storm or a nor’easter. This is overrunning precip of very warm air over cold air. Pretty simple and straight forward. What isn’t simple is the temperature profile that will exist during Monday as temperatures will be very close to 32 along the coast and just under freezing inland. This makes the forecast very difficult but it seems to me that there will be a a band of sub 32 degree temperatures somewhere across Long Island into coastal Jersey. How this temperature line meanders back and forth is going to determine who gets icing and where.
Dont get too wrapped up in snow amounts at this point. There really is no way to know the answer to that nor do i know where exactly the 32 degree line is going to be. Notice the temperature map at 1pm Monday has 32 degree readings all over the place. And remember GUIDANCE IS NOT BIBLE in either direction. It could easily be off several degrees in either direction. Usually these models tend to be too high. But we will watch temperature trends Sunday night. How cold it gets Sunday night will make a huge difference for Monday.
KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS THIS WEEKEND. SNOW IS ONE THING..ICE IS NEVER FUN.